Ndeipi mamiriro eindasitiri mbishi zvinhu zvemitengo mu2021?

 Iko kusimuka kune matatu maitiro

Yakabatwa nedenda ra2020, kubva pahafu yepiri yegore, akasiyana maindasitiri mbishi uye ebetsero zvinhu zvakaratidza huwandu hwese kumusoro, uye mitengo yezvinhu zvakasiyana siyana yakarova zvakapetwa zvakanyanya. Pakazosvika 2021, zvinoenderana nemaindasitiri akakodzera, mitengo yezvinhu zvisati zvave padanho repamusoro pakutanga kwegore. Nekuvhurwa kwejekiseni nyowani yepasi rose korona, mamiriro macroeconomic kumba nekune dzimwe nyika achatora, uye mitengo yezvinhu zveindasitiri mbishi ichawira zvishoma nezvishoma. Muna 2021, mutengo wemitengo unofanirwa kuratidza yekutanga yepamusoro. Mamiriro acho akaderera.

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1. Kubva 2018 kusvika 2020, mutengo wezvigadzirwa zvemabhizimusi uchakwira nenzira inotenderera

Muna Zvita, zvigadzirwa zvemumaindasitiri zvemumba zvakasimuka semuraraungu, uye mitengo yemhangura neyesimbi yaive ichirova zvitsva mumakore achangopfuura. Yakasimudzirwa mukuenderera mberi kwekukwira kweiyo Kutenga Mamaneja Index (PMI) munaNovember, zvinoratidza kuti izvo zvazvino kudikanwa kwehupfumi kuchiri kwakasimba. Ikozvino kusimuka kwezvigadzirwa zveindasitiri kunogara kwenguva yakareba sei, uye unotarisa sei shanduko mumitengo yezvigadzirwa zvemabhizimusi gore rinouya? Kutsigira kuwedzera kwemitengo yezvigadzirwa zveindasitiri gore rino kunosanganisira kudzora kwekumba nekunze uye kusakwanira kugadzirwa kwemhiri kwemakungwa, kusanganisira migodhi mikuru yekukunze (migodhi yesimbi neyemhangura). ) Yakaderedza kugadzirwa, uye mhiri kwemakungwa simba risinganyungudike harina kuchengetedza.

Iko kufunga kwekuwedzera kwemitengo yezvigadzirwa zveindasitiri mu2020 ndiko kusarongeka kwekugoverwa kwepasirese uye kudiwa pasi pechinetso chehosha. Muna 2021, mushure mekunge denda iri rakanyatsodzorwa, hukama pakati pekupihwa uye kudiwa haufanire kunge hwakanyanya segore rapfuura. Munguva inotevera, mitengo inowira zvishoma nezvishoma. Tichitarisa kubva pane inotevera shanduko mumitengo yezvigadzirwa zveindasitiri kubva 2018 kusvika 2020, mavhiri anotevera kutenderera, kubva kune esimbi simbi kuenda kusimba, anga ari mudenderedzwa rezvigadzirwa zvemabhizimusi.

2. Hunhu hwekukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu zveindasitiri mbishi

Tichifunga nezve maitiro eChina mugadziri wemutengo indekisi (PPI), maindasitiri zvigadzirwa zvigadzirwa zvine simba repasi rose resonance. China yePPI inoenderana zvakanyanya nekuchinja kweyekunze mutengo indekisi uye yepasi rose simba nesimbi index, iyo inoda maonero epasirese. Mbishi zvinhu zvemitengo yezvigadzirwa zvemabhizimisi.

Kubva pakuona kwerutivi rwekupihwa, denda idzva rekorona rakakanganisa zvakanyanya uye rakachinja chimiro checheni yeindasitiri yepasirese, nekuwedzera kwekudzika kwekugadzira kuchinjira kuChina, asi kugadziriswazve kwecheni rese remaindasitiri kunounza kukweshesana mitengo, uye kuwanikwa kwepasirese pateni yezvinhu zveindasitiri mbishi zvinonyanya kuiswa pakati, Kana matunhu ega ega akanganiswa nemhedzisiro yechirwere chekorona nyowani uye kugona kwavo kwekugadzira kukanganisika, zvinokanganisa zvikuru mitengo yezvinhu zvekugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri kumucheto.

Kubva padanho rekuda, iro nyowani korona chirwere "chagadzira" kudiwa nyowani, uye nekutenda kumari yakakura uye yemari inosimudzira marongero eupfumi hwakasiyana, kuyerera kwemari kwevagari hakuna kushata, uye kudiwa kuri kukwanisa kuitika .

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Iyi denderedzwa yemitengo iri kukwira yezvigadzirwa zveindasitiri inopa matatu maitiro:

1. Mitengo yezvigadzirwa zvemabhizimusi yakwira zvakanyanya-mwaka. Iko kune maonero ekuti iko kuchangobva kuwedzera kwemitengo yezvigadzirwa zveindasitiri kunoenderana nechando chando mamiriro ekunze uye kuwedzera kupisa kwekudiwa. Kana iwe ukatarisa panguva imwecheteyo munhoroondo, zvigadzirwa zvemaindasitiri zvichazowana kuwedzera kwemwaka muna Zvita, asi isu tinogona kuona kubva pamwedzi-nemwedzi-kuwedzera mumutengo wezvigadzirwa zveNanhua zvemaindasitiri kuti iwo mwedzi-nemwedzi kuwedzera kwe8.2% muna Zvita rakapfuura kwazvo avhareji yenhoroondo ye1.2%, kuratidza kuwedzera kunopfuura mwaka. .

2. Mitengo yezvimwe zvigadzirwa zveindasitiri yasvika pakukwirira kwenhoroondo. Mitengo yemhando dzakasiyana dzezvigadzirwa zveindasitiri yakwira. Tichitarisa iyo Nanhua Futures Commodity Index, iyo simbi indekisi ine yakakwira kwazvo mwero wemutengo uye kuwedzera kukuru kwemutengo. Mune indekisi yesimbi, ore yesimbi ine kuwedzera kukuru, kuchiteverwa nemhangura.

3. Kuwedzera kwemitengo yezvinhu zvakasvibirira kwakakwirira kupfuura iyo yaimbove fekitori mutengo. Isu tinoshandisa mutengo wekutenga wezvakakosha zvigadzirwa muPMI kuita mutsauko nemutengo wekare-wefekitori uye nekuushandura kuita gore-gore-gore. Sezvinoonekwa kubva pane chati iri pazasi, kubva Chivabvu, kuwedzera kwemutengo kwezvinhu zvakasvibirira kwakaramba kuchikwirisa kupfuura waimbove mutengo wefekitori.

3. Mutengo wemitengo yezvinhu zveindasitiri mbichana zvegore rese ra2021 rakakwira uyezve rakaderera

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Iyo inotonhora yechando wave wave iri kuuya, pamwe nekuuya kweMutambo weChirimo, simbi yekuvaka yekumba yapinda mwaka wemwaka-mwaka, uye iyo yekumba neyekunze denda mamiriro akatangazve. Pachine zvisizvo zvisina chokwadi kuti kudzoreredzwa kwehupfumi muhafu yekutanga ya2021 kuchaenderera sezvakarongwa. Kana hutachiona hutachiona husinga kukanganisa hutachiona, misika yesimbi yekunze ichawedzera kudiwa gore rino, izvo zvinozoita mamiriro ekuwedzera kwemidziyo yesimbi yemumba.

Wese munhu anoziva kuti mbishi zvigadzirwa hazvigone kumuka nekusimuka nguva dzese. Pachave paine nguva pavanodzoka shure. Izvo zvinonzi zvakakwirira kutanga uyezve zvakaderera. Pakutanga, mitengo yezvinhu zvakagadzirwa simbi simbi, marasha, mhangura, aluminium, uye girazi zviri kukwira. Kumuka kwezvinhu zvakagadzirwa kunofanirwa kuwedzera. Izvi zvinokanganisa mitengo yezvigadzirwa zveindasitiri uye zvinhu zvevatengi. Kana mitengo ikwira, inflation ichadarika uye yakakwira, uye uchafanirwa kuidzora.

Tichifunga nezvezvinhu zvakasiyana siyana kumba nekune dzimwe nyika, pane tarisiro huru yekudzoka kwehupfumi pamwe nekuitwa kwezvinhu zvakagadzirwa nemaindasitiri muna 2021. Pasi pekutarisira kuti hupfumi hukuru hwepasi rose huchaenderera mberi nekuchengetedza mitemo yezvemari, kudiwa chaiko mumusika wemhangura ramba uchitarisirwa mune 1-2 makota. Kutsiga kukura. Zvisinei, mitengo yemhangura inogona kudzikiswa muhafu yepiri yegore.

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Post nguva: Jun-11-2021